A prolonged drought in Argentina is negatively affecting corn and soybean crops. Local farmers report that corn leaves, usually still green at this time, are already starting to turn yellow.
Both Argentine stock exchanges are lowering their harvest forecasts, although local farmers believe that the real situation could be even more difficult, as the actual harvest will largely depend on when the rains begin.
Experts at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange have lowered their forecast for this year's soybean harvest to 49.6 million tons and corn to 49 million tons, while last year they were 50.2 million tons and 49.5 million tons, respectively. Exchange analyst Eduardo Sierra believes that if there is sufficient rainfall in the near future, farmers will be able to harvest 45 million tons of each crop.
However, each week without rain leads to the loss of at least 5 million tons of potential yield, so in the absence of significant rainfall, the final soybean and corn harvest could be reduced to 40 million tons. A decrease in the production of these crops in the 2024/25 MY could pose a serious challenge for the Argentine economy, which is largely dependent on agricultural exports, which replenish foreign exchange reserves and support the peso exchange rate. Rain forecasts remain uncertain: experts expect precipitation in the coming weeks, but it is unknown exactly where it will fall.
