Palm oil: India key to future prices

Cooking oil prices in Pakistan’s retail market have hit a 15-month high. The surge comes on the back of rising palm oil import costs, which have pushed domestic prices higher. January 2025 saw the highest import unit price in over two years, crossing $1,130 per ton. With Ramadan around the corner, prices are expected to remain firm.

Pakistan’s palm oil import bill for July-January FY25 stands at $1.9 billion—up 17 percent year-on-year. Import quantities have also increased, averaging 270,000 tons per month, up 9 percent year-on-year. The last time import volumes were higher during this period was in FY21 when COVID-induced price drops and Afghanistan’s border situation led to excessive inflows, including through smuggling. This time, it appears more of a demand-driven surge.