As 2025 begins, the global cashew market faces intertwined challenges—price volatility, delayed harvests, and shifting buyer preferences. Vietnam, which saw impressive export growth in 2024,
As 2025 begins, the global cashew market faces intertwined challenges—price volatility, delayed harvests, and shifting buyer preferences. Vietnam, which saw impressive export growth in 2024, now contends with late flowering and slower crop development in Vietnam and Cambodia, affecting the availability of raw cashew nuts (RCN). Meanwhile, W320 kernel offers for February–March shipments remain relatively steady, though major buyers in the United States and Europe appear cautious, offering low volumes, forcing packers to reduce prices and rely on existing inventories previously procured.
Across Africa, shipped RCN prices at various processing destinations show an upward trend: $1,621/MT in Burkina Faso, $1,762/MT in Guinea-Bissau, $1,939/MT in Indonesia, $1,307/MT in Madagascar, $1,540/MT in Mozambique, $1,435/MT in Nigeria, $1,808/MT in Senegal, $1,894/MT in Tanzania, and $1,451/MT in Togo.
Côte d’Ivoire’s farm-gate price stands at 425, delivered Abidjan 525, with a C&F of about $400, totalling around $1,250/MT. By contrast, Ghana sees unregulated buyers pushing local RCN to GHS 20–25/kg, exceeding $1,600 for 48–50 lbs outturn—a level many deem unsustainable.
On the demand side, India’s export market has softened in price and volume, though a stronger dollar offers partial relief. Domestically, India’s consumption remains robust, supporting processor margins even as importing RCN grows more expensive. The Middle East stays active but price-sensitive, often preferring mid-tier or lower-priced offerings. Nonetheless, upcoming demand from the Middle East and the Far East—spurred by Eid—could stabilize or modestly lift prices. Crucially, no major crop shortages have been reported, suggesting a stable outlook and potential for higher sales if kernel prices dip slightly in the near future.
Despite these positive signals, unethical RCN trade, such as inflated outturn guarantees on lower-yield crops, creates risks for unsuspecting buyers. Ongoing price fluctuations and low kernel returns continue to challenge packers, underscoring the need for careful sourcing and due diligence. To counter low export prices, some high-volume Indian processors have successfully moved to direct retail contracts, alongside value-added products and tailor-made specs for individual buyers. Moving away from basic shelling and generic shipments curbs dissatisfaction and can also command a premium. In 2025 and beyond, transparent trade, collaborative policymaking, and strategic innovation will be vital for cultivating a more resilient and equitable cashew industry.
