Traders had expected a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories to a 19-month low in December to boost prices, but a sharp slowdown in exports in January added to the pressure on prices.
Traders had expected a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories to a 19-month low in December to boost prices, but a sharp slowdown in exports in January added to the pressure on prices.According to surveyors Intertek Testing Services and AmSpec Agri Malaysia, Malaysia reduced its palm oil exports by 15.5-23.7% between January 1 and 15.India, the world's largest importer of vegetable oils, may cut palm oil imports to a 5-year low in January amid negative refining margins as buyers prefer cheaper soybean oil amid high palm oil prices.According to dealers, crude palm oil (CPO) for January delivery in India is currently being offered at $1,155/t CIF (including freight and insurance), while for February and March deliveries it is being offered at $1,140/t and $1,100/t, respectively.In the first half of January, palm oil imports to India amounted to 110 thousand tons, and in total for the month it will reach 340-370 thousand tons, which will be the lowest figure since March 2022, when supplies of this oil decreased due to unofficial restrictions on imports from Malaysia. Recall that in January 2024, India imported 782.9 thousand tons of palm oil.April palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia fell 4.5% in a week to 4,193 ringgit/t or $930/t (-4.2% in two weeks), despite a 5.6% increase in oil prices in two weeks.Reuters analysts believe that in the event of a further reduction in demand, palm oil prices could fall to 3,947-4,045 ringgit/t.March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.6% to $1,007/t on Friday (0% for the week, + 14% for two weeks) amid an unexpected sharp decrease in the US soybean harvest forecast, but this did not support palm oil quotes.According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil for delivery to buyers fell by 1.2% to $1,291/t on Friday, but increased by 2.8% overall over the two weeks.This week, markets will be awaiting President Trump's orders, including on green energy, which could significantly affect vegetable oil prices.
