LONDON, ENGLAND — Even as the war between Russia and Ukraine enters its third year, the CIS countries continue to ramp up soybean production, having doubled output over the past 10 years, according to an International Grains Council (IGC) report.
Among the reasons for the expanded output are “expanded local demand for derivative products with a range of other factors such as rotational requirements and relative returns compared to alternative crops,” the IGC said.
Although still relatively small players in the global soybean market, Russia and Ukraine are expected to harvest a combined 13.1 million tonnes of the oilseed in the 2024-25 marketing year, a 10% increase from the previous year, the Council said. With yields improving only modestly and still well below the global average, the IGC said most of the increase has been due to expanded acreage.In Russia, where rising local demand for soy products from the feed and food sectors has been the driving influence, the crops are chiefly grown in the eastern and central parts of the country, the Council said. The IGC pegs Russia’s soybean production in 2024-25 at 7 million tonnes, up from 6.7 million the previous year.Despite Russia being the largest producer in the region, soybean imports have remained an important component in the country’s supply and demand balance sheet, with intake well over 1.5 million tonnes in recent years.“Supplies are normally sourced from Brazil and Argentina, but with amounts arriving from Paraguay, for instance, in some seasons,” the IGC noted. “However, increased shipments to global markets have resulted in a narrowing of the net import position, to a forecast 400,000 tonnes in 2024-25.”Russian exports have increased sharply, reaching a peak of 1.3 million tonnes in 2022-23 and averaging 1 million tonnes the past five years, the IGC said. Almost all of Russia’s soybean shipments go to China.Despite being invaded by Russia three years ago, Ukraine remains the biggest soybean exporter in the CIS, accounting for nearly 70% of the region’s outgo over the past five years. In 2024-25, war-torn Ukraine is forecast by the IGC to export a record 3.7 million tonnes of soybeans.“(Ukraine) shipments are normally shaped by demand from EU processors, together with deliveries to destinations in Asia, largely to the Near East (Turkey),” the IGC said. “While sales to CIS countries have dwindled, demand from African buyers has ramped up, with shipments to Egypt surpassing 1 million tonnes in 2023-24, the most ever.”Ukraine ranks just behind Russia in soybean output among CIS countries and is forecast to produce 6.1 million tonnes of the crop in 2024-25, an 18% increase over the previous year, according to IGC projections.“While the domestic market was initially the main factor stimulating acreage growth, the past decade has witnessed a marked increase in exports,” the IGC said. “Boosted by a shift away from grains amid ideas of relatively better profitability, the area for threshing expanded especially sharply in 2024-25.”Climatologists have noted that climate change could positively impact soybean production in Russia, particularly in the eastern regions, and parts of Ukraine in the coming years as warming temperatures could open new areas for cultivation and potentially increase yields.
